U.S. crude inventories may have posted one of their sharpest weekly declines of the year, adding another layer of pressure to an oil market already confronting wars, shipping disruptions and historically tight supplies of refined fuels.
The American Petroleum Institute estimated late Wednesday that U.S. crude-oil inventories fell by 11.12 million barrels in the week ending October 9, following a 2.09 million-barrel decline the previous week. The API figures are industry estimates and will need to be compared with the Energy Information Administration’s official government data when that delayed report is released.
If confirmed, the draw would mark a sharp tightening from the previous official EIA reading. Government data for the week ending October 2 put commercial crude stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, at approximately 424.1 million barrels, after a weekly decline of about 3.2 million barrels.
API data indicate commercial inventories have fallen by more than 51 million barrels over the past 26 weeks, although total stocks remain around where they began the year. Those declines have unfolded during a period when the United States and other major economies have repeatedly tapped emergency reserves to cushion energy disruptions stemming from Middle East conflict.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve itself was estimated at roughly 283 million barrels for the reporting period, with no additional release during the week ending October 9 according to the API-based report. Earlier this year, the U.S. joined a wider International Energy Agency effort to release hundreds of millions of barrels globally as supply disruptions intensified.
Other parts of the petroleum balance were mixed. API estimated that gasoline inventories rose by about 1.1 million barrels, while distillate stocks — including diesel and heating oil — fell by approximately 1.5 million barrels. Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery hub for U.S. WTI futures, reportedly gained about 1.82 million barrels.
The distillate draw is particularly important because diesel remains one of the tightest areas of the global energy market. The International Energy Agency warned Wednesday that global diesel shortages could persist well into 2027, with lost refining output from Russia and the Middle East contributing to historically high margins and depleted inventories.
Oil prices were already elevated before the API numbers. Brent crude settled Wednesday at approximately $106.06 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate finished near $95.09, as traders reacted to attacks involving Saudi infrastructure, continuing threats to shipping near the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty over Russian diesel supplies.
U.S. production remains near record territory. The latest EIA data cited in market reporting put output at approximately 13.98 million barrels per day in the week ending October 2, up roughly 350,000 barrels per day from a year earlier. High domestic production has helped offset inventory pressure, but it has not been enough to eliminate the effect of international supply disruptions.
The next crucial data point will be the EIA’s official inventory report. A government-confirmed draw anywhere near API’s 11.1-million-barrel estimate would reinforce the view that the U.S. crude market is tightening rapidly. A substantially smaller draw, however, would again demonstrate why API figures are treated as an early signal rather than the final word on American petroleum inventories.
