November 4, 2026 — Democrat James Talarico is projected to win Texas’ U.S. Senate race against Republican Ken Paxton, bringing a campaign offer of cooperation with President Donald Trump into a new political setting. NBC News’ projection was reported by KPRC, while Reuters also reported his victory based on media projections. The outcome remains subject to official certification. click2houston.com
Decision Desk HQ’s tally, timestamped 10:11 a.m. EST on November 4, showed Talarico at 54.96% and Paxton at 43.12%—an 11.84-percentage-point lead. Those figures support descriptions of a double-digit advantage at that reporting snapshot, rather than a certified final margin. DDHQ
A HOUSING OFFER MADE BEFORE ELECTION DAY
Talarico’s overture to Trump came before voters delivered that result. In an interview with The Diary of a CEO released November 2, he said he would cooperate with the president on expanding access to health care and child care, as well as reducing barriers to home construction. His housing remarks described a willingness to work together, without announcing a negotiated plan. FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth
The Democrat identified construction rules as a potential area for agreement, arguing that easing restrictions could help increase the supply of homes. His campaign website separately points to his support for changes intended to expand apartment and condominium construction in Texas. These positions outline his preferred approach; they do not establish that Trump has accepted his proposals. FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth
THE GAS-TAX PROPOSAL HAS A LONGER HISTORY
Talarico had already proposed temporarily suspending federal gasoline and diesel taxes in April. The Texas Tribune reported that his proposal tied the suspension to fuel prices returning to their prewar levels. In an October candidate questionnaire, he again endorsed a federal gas-tax suspension, making it an existing campaign commitment rather than a policy first unveiled after his projected victory. texastribune.org
That proposal also carries a funding question. Federal fuel taxes support transportation programs, and The Texas Tribune reported concerns from an infrastructure advocate that suspending them could reduce revenue without ensuring equivalent savings at the pump. The campaign proposed federal oversight intended to help pass savings to consumers. texastribune.org
TRUMP SIGNALS WILLINGNESS TO NEGOTIATE
Trump separately told Politico’s Dasha Burns on election night that Democrats had contacted him and expressed interest in cooperation. He said he retained veto power but did not want to spend two years rejecting every bill. Those comments indicate openness to talks; the next development to watch is whether either side produces a specific agreement on fuel taxes, housing or another affordability measure.
THE INFORMANT | TEXAS SENATE
TALARICO PROJECTED WINNER
Unofficial results · November 4, 2026 · 10:11 a.m. EST
James Talarico (D) — 54.96%
5,450,662 votes
Ken Paxton (R) — 43.12%
4,276,190 votes
Ted Brown (L): 1.92% · 190,626 votes
Percentage-point lead over Paxton at this snapshot
Source: Decision Desk HQ . Media projection; results are not certified. Percentages show each candidate’s share of reported votes.
