TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA — November 3, 2026. Republican Congressman Byron Donalds has been projected to win Florida’s gubernatorial election over Democratic challenger David Jolly, according to NBC News and ABC News decision desks. The projections, reported Tuesday night, indicate that Republicans are set to retain control of Florida’s governor’s office following eight years under outgoing Governor Ron DeSantis. ABC News displayed its projection at approximately 9:14 p.m. Eastern Time, marking a significant development in one of the country’s closely watched gubernatorial contests.
Donalds, who represents Florida’s 19th Congressional District, entered the general election as the Republican nominee after winning his party’s August primary. Jolly, a former Republican congressman who later joined the Democratic Party, secured the Democratic nomination and campaigned on a different direction for the state. Their contest drew national attention as voters considered issues including property insurance, housing costs, economic conditions, artificial intelligence infrastructure and state government policies.
DONALDS PROJECTED AS FLORIDA’S NEXT GOVERNOR
The NBC News and ABC News projections identify Donalds as the expected winner of the contest. ABC’s election-night coverage listed him as its projected winner in an update published at 9:14 p.m. ET. These are independent media decision-desk calls based on available election information, not official declarations by Florida election authorities.
A HISTORIC FIRST FOR FLORIDA
If the projection is confirmed, Donalds will become Florida’s first Black governor. His election would also extend Republican control of the state’s highest executive office, which Democrats have not won since 1994, when Lawton Chiles secured reelection. Donalds is expected to succeed DeSantis, who cannot seek another consecutive term because of Florida’s gubernatorial term limits.
JOLLY’S CAMPAIGN AND THE ISSUES THAT SHAPED THE CONTEST
Jolly sought support from Democrats, independents and voters dissatisfied with aspects of the state’s current direction. His campaign emphasized affordability, property insurance and concerns about rapidly expanding data-center development. Donalds, meanwhile, campaigned as a Republican aligned with the state’s existing political leadership and emphasized economic development, tax policy and education.
MEDIA PROJECTIONS ARE NOT OFFICIAL CERTIFICATION
Although two major television networks have projected Donalds as the winner, Florida’s election authorities must still complete the official canvassing and certification procedures. Unofficial vote totals can change as additional ballots are processed, and a network projection does not replace the legal certification of election results.
WHAT DONALDS’ PROJECTED VICTORY MEANS FOR FLORIDA
The projection signals a continuation of Republican leadership in Florida’s governor’s office, with Donalds expected to take over from DeSantis in January 2027. The transition will place Donalds at the center of major state policy decisions involving insurance, taxation, education, housing and economic development. For now, the projected result represents an important Election Night development, while the official outcome remains subject to Florida’s election certification process.
GOVERNOR’S RACE
NBC News and ABC News — November 3, 2026.
Florida Division of Elections — Official Election Watch
